Optimism in The Future of The EU is Increasing
The standard Eurobarometer survey is a cross-national longitudinal study, designed to compare and measure trends within mainly the member states of the European Union. The survey is carried out every spring and autumn. Interviews for the standard Eurobarometer are conducted face-to-face in respondents' homes.
An important point to note is that the design of the survey has never been altered and therefore changes can be measured more accurately. Since spring 2007 one of the questions has been:
Would you say that you are very optimistic (4), fairly optimistic (3), fairly pessimistic (2) or very pessimistic (1) about the future of the EU?
An index for the future of the EU is conducted by calculating the average of the respondents’ answers. Since spring 2007 31 countries have participated in one or more Eurobarometer surveys and 27 countries have participated in all the surveys. The last survey was conducted in spring 2018. A list of the participating countries can be found in the appendix. For the future of the EU the development has been as follows:
Index for the future of the EU (4=high 1=low)
Country=European Union
During the 11 years that the survey has been carried out the index has reached a high of 2.60 (in spring 2007) and a low of 2.29 (in autumn 2011), meaning that the whole EU has fluctuated between fairly optimistic and fairly pessimistic since 2007. The lowest point in autumn 2011 coincides with a European Parliament member resigning over the 'cash for laws' scandal. A valid hypothesis could be that this low point is due to the scandal. Another low point was in 2016, when Britain voted to leave the EU. However, the index has been steadily increasing since the Brexit referendum.
Four countries have been selected for deeper analysis.
Denmark:
Index for the future of the EU (4=high 1=low)
Country=Denmark
Denmark had an all-time low point in autumn 2016 after the Brexit vote. In spring 2018 Denmark was back up to 2.67 which is above the average for EU member states with regards to the future of the EU. Back in spring 2009 (just after the economic meltdown in 2008) Denmark was at a record high of 2.90.
Germany:
Index for the future of the EU (4=high 1=low)
Country=Germany
Germany hit an absolute low point after Brexit in autumn 2016 when it dropped down to 2.20. Since then the index has been steadily rising and is now at 2.57, the highest since 2007.
France:
Index for the future of the EU (4=high 1=low)
Country=France
The index was very high just after the Brexit, but has since dropped and is now on 2.31 which is below the average for the EU.
Ireland:
Index for the future of the EU (4=high 1=low)
Country=Ireland
Ireland has never been more optimistic.
Appendix
Countries participating in the standard Eurobarometer since 2007.
Hans Bay
STATISTICIAN | VOLUNTEER
________
Being a statistician crunching numbers and the ability to handle vast amounts of date is part of Hans’ DNA but his real talent is to see beyond the numbers and understand what really motivates people. Behind every number in the world of consumer business there is a human action being taken. If we understand what motivates each action we are able to take better decisions.
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